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Forum: LiquidLounge
Re: If the media had vetted Obama from the beginning the way they should have, and had they given Clinton the love they've GRITS New
Re: <No Subject> Oci-One.Kanubi New
Re: Very long, read at your own risk... GRITS New
Re: Well, you asked! Oci-One.Kanubi New
Re: Last I checked, Obama had like a 10% lead in pledge delegates, with many more delegates undecided. GRITS New
Date: May 12 2008, 22:02 GMT
From: otto

	So he needs 33 delegates out of 217 to win 50% of the pledged delegates.  15% of what is left.  If things go horribly for him, he will win 8 delegates in WV, 15 delegates in KY, 15 delegates in OR.  So if Hillary beats him 75%-25% in each of the next three states, he wins the pledged delegate race. This is the reason the media has declared the race over.  The math requires a willfull suspension of disbelief for Clinton to prevail in the primary portion of the nomination (Hillary can still win, but only if she wins 86% of the vote in 90% of the congressional districts in the remaining 6 contests). Now to win the nomination, Obama needs to secure 150 total delegates (he is at 1875 right now).  There are the 217 pledged delegates left, and 258 superdelegates left, for a total of 475 delegates.  A reasonable worst case scenario for him is that he only wins 90 more pledged delegates...that means he needs only 60 out of the remaining 258 superdelegates to win the nomination.  So the only needs around 23% of the remaining superdelegates to support him, even if he completely tanks the next 6 contests.

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Dang numbers.  I thought numbers weren't ever s'posed to change? Oci-One.Kanubi New

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