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Forum: LiquidLounge
Re: If the media had vetted Obama from the beginning the way they should have, and had they given Clinton the love they've GRITS New
Re: <No Subject> Oci-One.Kanubi New
Re: Very long, read at your own risk... GRITS New
Re: Well, you asked! Oci-One.Kanubi New
Re: Last I checked, Obama had like a 10% lead in pledge delegates, with many more delegates undecided. GRITS New
Date: May 12 2008, 21:59 GMT
From: Oci-One.Kanubi

	So far 3017 pledged delegates are committed.  Of those, 1591 (53%) are committed to Obama, and 1426 (47%) are committed to Clinton. That is a difference of a mere 165 pledged delegates.  Seems like peanuts, don't it?  But what you refer to as "many more delegates undecided" is actually 267 (8.1% of the total). So, to get a simple majority of pledged delegates, Clinton must first win 165 to gain parity.  Then she must win more than half of the final 102.  In other words, she must win 217 (165 + 52) of the remaining 267: 81% of the as-yet unpledged delegates.  It is conceptually possible for her to win all 267 remaining delegates, but as a practical matter, it is statistically impossible that her 47% success rate will jump to 81% for the remainder of the campaign.  Remember, Obama needs only 52 more for a simple majority of pledged delegates, and he will certainly get them. 'Course, there are always the Superdelegates.  Obama leads there by only 279 to 272 (with 244 uncommitted).  I wouldn't presume to make any predictions on back-room wheeling and dealing; she might get 'em all, for all I know.  But he's been gaining on her of late, and recently passed her. I am sorry; I used to be a Hillary Clinton supporter, and still would be if one whom I judge to be a better candidate hadn't come along.  But claiming that "she still has a chance" because "there are "many more delegates undecided" is pure inumeracy.  It is like spending your mortgage payment on lottery tickets because "there is a chance".  It is wishful thinking of the worst kind, and for Senator Clinton to indulge herself in such wishful thinking is damaging to the country's chances of getting the Repugnicants out of the White House. If Mrs. Clinton were leading in the pledged delegate count, I would be wishing for Mr. Obama to concede, to stop pushing her to make herself look bad, so that she could remain as strong as possible for the General Election, where she would get my vote.  But that is not the reality. -Richard, His Kanubic Travesty -- ====================================================================== Richard Hopley                                  Winston-Salem, NC, USA       Nothing really matters except Boats, Sex, and Rock'n'Roll .                    rhopley[at]earthlink[dot]net   OK, OK; computer programming for scientific research also matters .                     rhopley[at]wfubmc[dot]edu ======================================================================

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