... I live in rural South Carolina, and my Facebook connections have me in touch with many of my high school contemporaries (graduated late 70's) in rural northern Georgia, and out here where the Baptists run the deal, the women are pretty vocally anti-Obama in frighteningly high numbers.

I said initially, I think this signals a race that will involve a lot of pandering to the "base" of each party's constituency - the Republican's have clearly made a calculation that if they can run a really passionate ultra-partisan race, they can motivate their core voters more effectively and in greater numbers than the Obama campaign can do the same.

I think the Republican hope is based in their perception that a lot of Obama's support in 2008 was from people getting caught up in the wave of enthusiasm surrounding his candidacy - and the past 4 years of obstructionism in Congress has been designed to help dampen that softer support he had last time.

It's a no brainer to me, as decisions go - I couldn't in good conscience vote for either Romney nor Ryan, much less both of them - but I'm far from confident. I think it's going to be a nasty and grindingly partisan race, and I think the final result is going to hinge on narrow margins in states where populous urban areas and large rural areas mean the split is close. States like SC are not in doubt. But Ohio? Florida?

My sense is it's going to be a nail biter, and very bitterly contested.