the more times you do it the more likely the odds will catchup to you.  Say you're a good paddler, like EJ and 99/100 times you'll make that move - that 1 time you don't could be the 100th time, the first or anytime.  Of course the risk can vary with conditions etc but it doesn't matter how many times you do it - the odds are the same each time.

But that's not really the important point - the important point is that you are safe!  Glad you survived to tell us about it.